We are often asked is this going to be a bad year for wasps and the short answer is we don’t know for sure yet and it probably won’t be “bad” or “good.” Wasp numbers in the UK vary a lot year-to-year, mainly because of weather. 2026 could go either way depending on how Spring and Summer develop.
Here’s what we feel based on current evidence:
- Wasp years are naturally unpredictable
- Experts say wasp populations rise and fall in cycles, often driven by weather conditions rather than a steady trend.
- A “bad” year (lots of wasps) often follows a quieter year, and vice versa.
- The biggest factor is the weather (especially Spring)
What really decides a wasp season:
More wasps if:
- Warm, dry Spring + mild Winter
- More queen wasps survive and build nests early
- Colonies grow bigger and last longer
This is what caused the big 2025 wasp surge
Fewer wasps if:
- Cold, wet winter or spring
- Queens die or fail to establish nests
- Flooding and lack of insect prey limit growth
This led to low numbers in some recent years
- Early signs for 2026 are mixed (not “bad”)
- Some local forecasts suggest 2026 could be busier than average if warm conditions continue.
- But others note the UK had a wet winter, which can reduce queen survival and lower early colony numbers.
So these conflicting signals equal a degree of uncertainty
- Climate change is making things more erratic
- The UK is seeing more extreme swings (very wet Winters, very warm Springs).
- That means:
- Bigger boom years (loads of wasps)
- But also, occasional quiet years (very few)
Bottom line
- 2026 probably won’t be “bad” across the UK.
- It could:
- Start slower (due to the wet Winter), then
- Turn into a busy Summer if Spring/Summer are warm and dry.
We expect the key tipping point will be the weather in May & June.